Lucky Seven Thoughts?

1) I did not think it was possible but LaDanian Tomlinson may actually have some competition for bitchiest star athelete award. That's right folks, LeBron James is breathing right down his neck. Not being an avid Cavaliers watcher I did not realize how whiny and "god forbid anybody lay even the slightest hand on me" he is. It's truly a revelation.

2) Just in case you were wondering, Eric Gagne's numbers on the year are 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and five blown saves. Again, looks like we got the "real", post-steroids Gagne in Boston. I hate dumping on the guy so much but he came off as such a standoffish prick while he was here that I am revelling in his failure. Sorry to all the Brewers fans though.

3) If Tony Allen should send anybody a Christmas Card this year, that person should definitely be Sam Cassell. Amazingly, Cassell has grabbed the reigns of the "person I cringe, cuss, and want to break things when I see check into the game" award from him and seems content on running absolutely wild with it. Seriously, I could not dislike a Celtics player more right now than I dislike Sam Cassell.

4) Oh, and why can't the Celtics win on the road? It is getting maddening. I would have bet almost my life on the fact that they would lose on Saturday but I did not think they would do so in such uninspiring fashion. Hopefully Monday can be an improvement?

5) With every new Julio Lugo error it is beginning to look more and more like RBB is going to get their Jed Lowrie wish. As Buster Olney pointed out in his blog the other day, the Red Sox have championship aspirations and shortstop is too important of a position to be fielding a major defensive liability at. With that said, most of what I have read about Jed Lowrie is that he may not have the range or arm to handle that position. It's a tough dilemma. As much as I'd like a guy who can make the routine play, I'd also like a guy that will turn tough groundballs into outs instead of letting them through the gap for base hits.

6) All of this really has me pining for Alex Gonzalez, the OC, or even the no-hitting Pokey Reese. With the exception of that posse, ALL of the players the Sox have run out recently have struggled massively with the routine plays whether it was Nomar air-mailing throws or Renteria or Lugo botching easy groundballs. Yikes. Much like the bullpen which has been hit or miss for the Sox in the Theo years, shortstop has certainly been an area of great issue as well.

7) I am still waiting for Paul Pierce to take over a playoff game. I know he can. As for how to accommodate that, here is my suggestion.

Play him forty minutes on Monday night, cede the backup point guard duties to Ray Allen and Eddie House, and for all the time that Rondo is not in run almost the entire offense through Pierce. Despite everything else, Pierce is still their best and most consistent offensive player when he can get himself into the game and I truly believe that that will make a world of difference. Notice how Sam Cassell was nowhere to be found there? Exactly. From now on I hope to only see him in the game at the end of quarters on last offensive possessions when a shooter is necessary. Other than that I hope to see him sparingly. I know that won't happen because Doc is in love with him, but a guy can dream right? Read more!

Checking In on My Preseason Predictions

Right now we are almost a quarter way through the baseball season. I must admit, the Sox are looking much better than I anticipated, especially offensively and they should be in great shape if they can find a way to get Dice and Lester consistently pitching into the seventh inning.

Anyway, because there really is not too much interesting to dissect or make provocative statements about at this moment, let's look at how my preseason picks for good/bad teams, MVP, Cy Young, etc are looking at this moment. I'll divide things up into three categories, The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly and present them in reverse order.

The Ugly

I was REALLY riding the Mariners train at the beginning of the year making Erik Bedard my Cy Young pick, Adrian Beltre my Sleeper MVP pick, and JJ Putz my Super Sleeper MVP pick. Right now, they sit in last place of the AL West. Of these picks though, the only ones that can be legitimately panned at this point are the Putz and Beltre selections as Bedard despite starting the year on the DL has pitched pretty well. Meanwhile, Adrian Beltre has hit .262 with 6 homers, 13 RBI, 4 steals, and an OPS of .841 to date (through 5/7, as are all stats quoted here). Those numbers are obviously nowhere near MVP caliber but he is tied for tenth in the AL in homers and fifteenth in OPS so it's not like he has been awful. Still, his team is in last place right now and he is hardly setting the league on fire for a bad team so I have to throw him in the "ugly" category.

JJ Putz who as noted above started the year on the DL has pitched in 6 innings in 6 games so far and been pretty much terrible allowing five earned runs and ten hits. Yes, he has had his hallmark high K numbers - 10 in these 6 innings - but the other numbers are awful. He could rebound I guess, but I based my preseason MVP thoughts for him on him saving 50 games and right now that looks pretty unlikely.

While JJ Putz has been bad so far this year, he's really got nothing on my Super Sleeper Cy Young Pick, Francisco Liriano. Liriano started the season in the minors to continue working on his arm strength, then was summoned to the big leagues for three starts in which he got rocked (only 10 1/3 total IP with 15 hits, 13 walks, and 13 runs allowed over that short span), and then was sent back down to the minors again. Even for a Super Sleeper Pick which has to be a long shot, that one turned out real bad.

In regards to my NL picks, none of them were horrible so I'll take a bow there.

The Bad

My Sleeper picks for NL Cy Young and MVP in Aaron Harang and Aramis Ramirez have not exactly justified my faith in them to date but neither has been awful either. Harang is currently second in the NL in K's with 47, first in IP with 55 1/3, and has posted a very respectable 1.10 WHIP and 3.09 ERA. Because he plays for a last place team though he just has 1 win to show for all that. Even so, he still possesses all the traits that you want in a number one starter (eats innings, strikes guys out, does not allow a lot of base runners) but it just so happens his team this year is a lot worse than anticipated. I initiated the Harang bandwagon hoping that his team would be better and right now they are not therefore making my pick "bad" even if Harang's pitching has not been anywhere near that.

As for Aramis, he is a historically semi-slow starter and this year is not that much different. His numbers are good right now (.279/6/23 with a .936 OPS) but not outstanding as he is not in the NL's Top 10 in any of these categories. Like I said though, he usually starts out slow and if he heats up later on in the season and the Cubs finish the year with one of the NL's best records as I think they will then I think he can hop up a notch here and put himself in the MVP discussion.

In the AL, my Sleeper Pick for Cy Young was Scott Kazmir. Right now, the only thing keeping him from "The Ugly" category is the fact that he has just made one start this year. Granted his one start was pretty bad against the Red Sox, but I refuse to damn the guy after only one outing which was also his first since coming off the DL. We'd be foolish to judge Josh Beckett if we said his season would be a bust after his first post-DL start against Toronto right? I still think Kazmir will end up having a pretty good year. He may not put himself in the Cy Young discussion, but I don't think that calling him a Sleeper Cy Young candidate will look stupid in September. I could be wrong.

Also in the AL, I championed A-Rod as my pick for MVP under the auspices of he should be the favorite for MVP every year that he enters a season healthy. A-Rod entered the season healthy. And then he got hurt. Because of that, he probably won't have the requisite numbers at the end of the year to put himself in that conversation but by no means do I consider this a bad pick. Sure it was the logical, easy, and boring pick. But it was not a bad one at the time, it just won't work out this year.

The Good

Because I am so smart, this is my most stacked category. What I'm going to do here is project each player's numbers over the remaining course of the season to reflect their full year's stats using their current per game averages. Granted, most of these stats probably skew a bit high but no matter it bears looking at anyway.

As for the teams, I'm going to put their current W/L record as well as their current rankings in runs scored and runs against so that we can see whether or not their current start looks sustainable for better or worse.

AL Cy Young, Neil's Pick - Erik Bedard

28 GS/176 IP/140 K/75 BB/1.99 ERA/1.07 WHIP

These projections I think are a bit on the low side for Bedard. I think his K rate should go up and his walks down (last year he struck out 221 in 182 IP with just 57 walks) while his ERA goes up to around 3.00 and his WHIP stays about the same. Keeping his current pace won't get him in the Cy Young talk unless his ERA stays in the sub-2 level, but if the other factors I mention happen then I think he'll be right there. His lack of innings could hurt him though.

NL Cy Young, Neil's Pick - Jake Peavy

33 GS/220 IP/218 K/73 BB/2.22 ERA/1.03 WHIP

I think these numbers look right about in line with what I'd expect for Peavy. His only drawback is playing for a bad team so winning 15 may be tough for him and we all know how much Cy Young voters love win totals.

NL Cy Young, Super Sleeper - Ben Sheets

30 GS/190 IP/159 K/53 BB/2.29 ERA/0.89 WHIP

Honestly, I think these numbers are pretty legit. My guess would be for his K's to finish a bit higher than this and his WHIP to be right around 1 but other than that I think this seems right. One big factor in Sheets' favor is the fact that he plays for a good offensive team so wins should be easier for him to come by. One negative factor is that at this moment, the Brewers closer is Eric Gagne pretty much negating the previous. Oh yeah, and Sheets is only slightly less injury prone than walking DL stint, Rich Harden so you have to consider that too. But, if he can make 30 starts and keep up what he is doing now, he will definitely be there in the end.

NL MVP, Neil's Pick - Hanley Ramirez

160 games/.328 AVG/128 Runs Scored/32 HR/96 RBI/64 SB/.413 OBP/.565 SLG/.968 OPS

Yes, the Marlins are in first place now, and no I don't think that will last, but I do not care. If Hanley keeps up this pace - and I think he absolutely can - then I see no way to not include him in the top, top tier of MVP Candidates.

NL MVP, Super Sleeper - Matt Kemp

150 Games/.328 AVG/90 Runs Scored/16 HR/128 RBI/48 SB/.355/.509/.863

Other than the 48 steals, I think these all look pretty legit. I also think his homers will go up some. Somewhere within the 25/25 range for HR and SB seems about right to me.

Lately the Dodgers have been tearing it up and he has been the big reason. When I wrote my preview I said I thought he would key a late season push by the Dodgers and that would propel him to the MVP. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about this pick even if at the moment it will seemingly take an act of god - or an injury - to keep the NL MVP trophy out of the hands of Chipper Jones or Chase Utley both of whom are playing out of their minds.

AL Surpise Team, Good - Twins

Right now the Twins have scored the second fewest runs in the league, are second to last in team OBP, and fourth from last in OPS. Meanwhile their pitching staff is fifth in ERA, fifth in runs allowed, and have issued the fewest walks in the league. However they have also struckout the fewest amount of batters. Because they allow so few walks they can compensate for what they lack in K's but it's still an uphill battle when balls are being put in play that much. Either way, their pitching always seems to hang around and be decent so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here based on track record as much as anything else.

And guess what else? They are in first place in the AL Central with a 17-15 and a scoring differential of +1. As I said, like it has in the past, I think their pitching will keep them afloat and respectable but I don't think their run in first will last much longer. I still think however that their win total will be somewhere in the low 80's which is pretty good for a team that traded it's two biggest attractions and stars in the offseason.

NL Suprise Team, Good - Marlins

The Marlins currently rank tenth in the NL in runs scored, ninth in OBP, and fifth in OPS. As for their pitching staff, well they are tenth in ERA, ninth in runs allowed, have issued the seventh most walks in the league, and have struck out the second fewest. Oh yeah, and their run differential is -7. Despite all this they are currently in first place in the NL East somehow with a 19-14 record. This seems like a fluke to me, but I predicted that they'd win in the 70's range which was better than anticipated after trading away two of their marquis players (Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis) and I think that prediction will probably hold. I'd say they could crack 80 wins, but with those stats mentioned above I do not know how long they can keep this going.

AL Surprise Team, Bad - Detroit

Why are the Tigers so bad?

Well, their one good pitcher heading into the year, Justin Verlander has not been good, the rest of their staff has been even worse, some old guys in their lineup have started to show their age, and the superstar they acquired in the offseason who has had a history of apathy has put things on cruise control since inking a $156 M contract prior to the season.

The ugly numbers...

The Pitching:

- allowed the second most runs in the AL (1 less than Texas)

- last in ERA

- have issued the third most walks and struck out the sixth least

The Hitting:

- scored the third most runs

- second in OBP

- second in OPS

OK, so the hitting has actually been pretty good. But it has not been good enough to make up for their atrocious pitching. Also, they have the second highest payroll in MLB devoted almost exclusively to offensive players, and pundits in the preseason were foolishly drumming up "they could score 100 runs" hype. That aint happening. Neither is them making the playoffs because right now their run differential is -23 and unless they can somehow miraculously transform their staff into a competent group they are going to be fighting against the grain all year and relying far too much on their offense.

NL Surprise Team, Bad - Rockies

Why are the Rockies so bad?

Their pitching, which carried them to and through the postseason last year is back to it's familiar stomping grounds of the bottom of the NL and their offense has not been much better.

The pitching:

- allowed the second most amount of runs to score

- second to last in ERA

- struck out the third least and walked the most

The hitting:

- eleventh in runs scored

- eighth in OBP

- tenth in OPS

Okay, so they can neither pitch nor hit and sport a staggering run differential of -36. That is pretty bad folks. Could they push 100 losses? I don't know about that, but I think 90+ is certainly within the realm of possibilities.

So there you go. The season is young, but my predictions for the most part are looking so far, so good. I am quite proud of myself honestly.
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All Blown Saves Are NOT Created Equal

Tough one for Papelbon tonight. You know how stat people will tell you that winning/losing a game by one run can come down to a ton of luck? Well I think Wednesday's Sox/Tigers game could be considered Exhibit A. Consider Papelbon's 9th inning:

1) An excuse me swing base hit for the leadoff batter.

2) Julio Lugo botching an easy groundball. Creating two on with no outs.

3) A sacrifice bunt. Second and third with one out.

4) A grounder to second to score a run. Now first and third with two outs.

5) A broken bat flare just barely out of the reach of Lugo for the game winning hit.

Jeesh. The hardest hit ball was probably Edgar Renteria's ground ball to short that Lugo botched and despite all that the Tigers were able to scratch together two runs to win the game against arguably baseball's best closer. Pretty tough to fault Paps for this blown save. Oh well. You have to figure with all the last at bat victories the Sox have had this year (and Wednesday looked to be another) that eventually one won would go the other way. This was that game. Beckett on Thursday though trying to propel them to taking three of four from Detroit. I like the chances. Going for the sweep would have been better of course but if you were asked at the outset of the series if you'd feel good about the team taking three of four from Detroit in Detroit, I promise you your answer would be a resounding, "YES". Read more!

Instant Analysis! Why The Celtics Won:

The Celtics actually did win this game. For a while there it looked like they just "might not lose" but I say they won. Here is why:

1) LeBron was awful. It wasn't the jumpers he was missing either, it was the layups. But, before you go saying that the C's only won because LeBron was awful shooting 2-18 and turning the ball over 10 times, consider that Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined to shoot 2-18 for 4 points all scored by Pierce. Look, LeBron probably won't shoot that bad again in the series, but neither will Pierce or Allen so I call that a wash.

2) KG was outstanding. I have dogged KG some in the past few weeks but he was absolutely outstanding on the offensive end. He was great in the first half, disappeared some in the start of the second, but then came out swinging in the fourth quarter and hit the C's two biggest field goals of the game. We've all been waiting for KG to step up and take over a game in crunch time and he certainly did that in Game 1.

3) James Posey was outstanding. He played great D all night, hit a couple threes, grabbed the rebound on LeBron's last shot, and then hit the clinching free throws. Oh, and since Yahoo now tracks +/-, Posey's +/- was +17, by the far the best number on the team. Pretty nice game there James.

4) Sam Cassell, despite his best efforts to murder the Celtics offensive momentum in the first half which he successfully did for almost two quarters, came into the game in the fourth and scored for them when they desperately needed scoring including the go-ahead free throws. Great game offensively for Sam, but he still seems to kill the offensive flow when he gets into the game with his me-first attitude. When he checks in I cringe knowing their offense will resort to standing around and him chucking jump shots as opposed to the penetration that Rondo brings to the table. But I can't dog him tonight just like I can't dog JD Drew anymore because Sam I Am played a monumental role in their victory.

5) Rondo played outstanding in the first quarter but then never seemed to get back into the game. He played about 29.5 minutes which is the norm for him, but he made minimal impact after his outstanding first quarter. I really think this is because Cassell knocked the offense so out of whack upon his entrance into the game that Rajon didn't know what to do and could not fix it.

I hate dogging on Cassell after he played such an instrumental role in victory but it is no coincidence that the C's seem to start their games attacking the rim and getting easy shots thanks to Rondo, but then the offense dissolves in the second and third quarters when Cassell is logging his minutes and chucking shots. I don't get it. I don't get why Rondo is not playing 35-40 minutes a night. He is a prototypical point guard, a great match for the team, and his teammates feed off of his aggressiveness. I understand bringing in Cassell when points are needed and to give Rajon a rest here and there, but I think he plays too much and either his minutes need to get cut or he needs to start playing more like a point guard and less like a ball hogging gym hero.

6) Kendrick Perkins continues to play outstanding basketball pretty much under the radar. Seven points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks may not seem like earth shattering numbers but when you watch the game you absolutely feel his presence and understand his impact.

7) I love Leon Powe as much as the next guy, but he was A-W-F-U-L in Game 1. Wow. He'll bounce back.

8) Nobody praises Paul Pierce more than I do so this may ring hollow and make me sound like a Pierce apologist but despite his woeful shooting performance he absolutely set the tone for the team in the fourth quarter by posting his guy up and attacking the hoop. This did not result in points or even him getting to the line, but it sent the message that settling for bad jumpers was not acceptable and they would need to step up their aggressiveness in order to win and guess what they did and they did.

9) After saying all that, another key reason for their victory was Big Z - who played outstanding - going cold for the latter portion of the third quarter and the first half of the fourth quarter. He was destroying them with his outside game like a mix between Rik Smits and the psycho from Fargo but once his shots temporarily stopped falling the C's were able to get some traction and put themselves in a position to win the game.

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Five Quickies from the Weekend

1) So let's just pretend that that Atlanta series never happened okay? The home blowouts were nice and even nicer was finally seeing KG showup with a dominating performance in Game 7. Still, I'd love to see Pierce get tracked. I figured he would be good for at least one dominating game in the series and with the exception of Game 5 and some spurts in the other games he was not much of a factor. Even though he had a poor shooting game in Game 7, they were running the offense through him consistently, he was attacking the basket, and not coincidentally things went worlds better as they consistently stuck to that point of attack.

2) Look, I know Jon Lester has put together consecutive "good" starts but I still almost refuse to watch the guy pitch. It took them about two hours to play four innings thanks to Lester's massive pitch count in the early innings which eventually lead to him throwing 112 pitches through six innings. Call me crazy, but I can't take watching marathon games against the Rays with massive pitch counts in early May. Even if Lester has only allowed one earned run in his last fourteen innings, he's still walked seven batters in that time while striking out eleven. Maybe I am being stubborn and irrational as I've been on the record countless in expressing my displeasure with the guy but I refuse to believe that you can be as good as the Sox seem to think Lester will be averaging a walk every other inning and not even striking out two guys for every one he walks.

3) I will be absolutely shocked if the Celtics/Cavs series goes less than seven games. I'll say the C's will win in seven because I am a homer and I want them to win, but I honestly believe it will be a classic. In the past, LeBron has brought the best out of Paul Pierce and I hope that trend continues. I also think the C's frontcourt matches up much better to the Cavs trio of Ben Wallace, Anderson Varejo, and Big Z Ilgaskus than the young atheletes employed by the Hawks. I will not bee sad to see Josh Smith go and neither will KG.

4) If you want an unsung hero from Game 7, look no further than Kedrick Perkins. Perkins played great on the blocks in the first quarter collecting ten points and blocking a few shots which really seemed to set the defensive tone. His final line of ten points, ten boards, and five blocks is exactly what you want to get from the guy. Bottom line, he played great in a deciding game. KG will probably get most of the pub from this one, but ignoring Perk's contributions would be a grave error.

5) Will Kevin Garnett's body-check/pick against his newfound nemesis, Zaza Pachulia be a turning point in his Celtic career? Will that set him completely over the edge and make him of the mindset to absolutely dominate every game he plays? Maybe. I sure hope so.

PS...Eric Gagne blew his fifth save of the season today. I don't think it was Boston that got to the guy. I think it was getting off the juice.
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Laurence Maroney...nice

Remember the other day when I mentioned Laurence Maroney's garb at the C's game on Wednesday night. Well I found a picture. Let's just say it's even better than I imagined. I'm not even attempting a joke here. Read more!

Looking at the Sox Offensive Slump

So, how bad has the Red Sox offensive slump been? Well, since scoring three runs in the second inning of last Friday's 11 inning loss to the Rays they have scored exactly 5 runs in the 54 innings or six games worth of baseball that have followed. During that stretch, their record is 2-4. If Bucholz does not miss on that pitch to Akinori Iwamura last Saturday, maybe their record is 3-3. Of course, if they don't get those two walk-off wins at Fenway then maybe they are staring at 0-6. It is pointless to play the what if game though. The bottom line is that they are 2-4 over their last six games during which they have scored 5 runs over a 54 inning span. If you ask me, they are pretty damn lucky to be 2-4 during this stretch and I actually see this as a positive.

Over the course of a 162 game baseball season, every team no matter how good is going to go through stretches when they lose four of six. Lose two of three in back-to-back series; 2-6. Get swept, and then take two of three in a series; 2-6. You get the point. These things happen. It stinks that during this run the Sox wasted outstanding starts by Clay Bucholz and Josh Beckett, but those are the breaks in baseball. It happens to every pitcher a few times a year. Would we be feeling any better if things were going the exact opposite and the Sox went 2-6 while scoring 6 or 7 runs a game? Probably not. In fact, I'd say that we'd be panicking more about how awful the pitching staff is and and how bad it is to lose a game when the offense scores 6+.

With all of that being said, the offense has truly been brutal for the last week. But, let's look on the (relatively) brighter side for a moment. Consider:

1) A few weeks into the season Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and JD Drew all found themselves in the .350-.370 range. These three hitters I would say are guys that will end up in the .310, .280, and .275 ranges respectively. So, the averages had to dip eventually. I just did not think it would happen simultaneously and so quickly. Plus, Youk normally waits until after the All Star Break for his annual prolonged slump that goes ignored because too many people are too busy over-praising him because he has a last name that has a beginning that is fun to say and lends itself well to cheers.

2) Let's look at how each of the games has played out. As you will see the Sox have faced some of the AL's top pitchers over the past week creating a perfect storm - team wide slump vs. great pitching - for offensive incompetence.

Friday - 5-4 loss to TB in 11 innings
Here, they faced Matt Garza, a prime 2008 breakout candidate and the centerpiece to the trade the Rays made during the offseason with the Twins where they sent away last year's ROY runner up, Delmon Young. Garza, I think will be a very good pitcher for a long time. Last Friday was his first start off the DL and he struggled at first but then settled down. After that Tampa's AL best bullpen (no joke!!) took care of business until the late innings when they were able to force the Sox to use Mike Timlin who of course surrendered the winning run adding to his already extensive "Watch Mike Timlin Suck - '08 Version" highlight DVD.

Saturday - 3-2 loss to TB
Here the Sox lost to Edwin Jackson whose erratic style (22:16 K:BB) seems to give them fits. (He went 2-1 against them last year in August and September.) Jackson's not a bad pitcher though. This year he is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He's the "worst" pitcher they have faced in this stretch but it's not like he's in the Hughes/Kennedy Zone for sucking.

Sunday - 3-0 loss to TB
This loss came against everybody's favorite really good, unknown pitcher in the AL, James Shields. So far this year he is 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 28 K's in 39 IP to only 9 walks. This is no fluke. Last year Shields went 12-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 184 K's in 215 IP. What really amazes me about his numbers last year was the 1.02 WHIP he posted. Wow.

Tuesday - 1-0 victory over Toronto
This victory came over Roy Halladay. Halladay has consistently been one of the best pitchers in the AL since 2003 when he won his Cy Young. You want to know his average season over the course of his career?

227.2 IP/157:54 K:BB/3.62 ERA/128 ERA+/1.23 WHIP

Pretty good huh. Getting shut down by him is nothing to be embarrassed about.

Wednesday - 2-1 victory over Toronto
Another hot breakout candidate for 2008 was Dustin McGowan, the guy who more or less stymied the Sox on Wednesday. The reason for people saying this is thanks in large part to his 3.87 ERA, .217 BAA, 1.14 WHIP, and 87 K's in 98 IP after the All Star Break last year. This year he had pitched okay prior to facing Sox but was nothing outstanding. He was outstanding against the Sox though, and it was no fluke. McGowan is one of the many emerging pitchers in the AL East and when he finishes this season with an ERA in the mid-to-low threes there will be nothing embarrassing about not being able to do much of anything against him on a cold night in April.

Thursday - 3-0 loss to Toronto
Thursday the Sox ran into AJ Burnett. Good AJ Burnett can be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Bad AJ Burnett can be an absolute train-wreck. Last night the Sox got Good AJ Burnett as much as the Blue Jays got Good Jon Lester on Tuesday. The end numbers for Burnett were impressive (0 ER in 7 2/3 IP) but he still walked as many batters, 5 as he struck out. Burnett can be great and overpowering at times - last year he did strikeout 176 in 165 2/3 IP - but Thursday night he really was not that way. It looks to me more like he was "effectively wild" and that mixed in with a struggling lineup spelled doom for the Sox. Burnett is a good pitcher and can be a great one so it's not like they were shut down by some scrub for the Royals. Still though, if a guy walks five batters you'd hope to be able to make him pay some way or another. Of all the pitching performances they encountered, I'd say this was the "worst" save for Garza's, but it was still pretty good and the Sox are not the first - nor will they be the last - team that AJ Burnett has shut down.

And there you have it. A more humanized look at this epic offensive slump for the Red Sox. A bit more understandable now right? Either way, I'd like to see them throw up a 10 spot tonight. So would my fantasy team. I got Manny and Ortiz on there so needless to say this last week has been a bit rough.

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